
Kalshi’s midterm markets offer a useful lesson in correlation, and in why an apparent pricing inconsistency is not automatically an arbitrage opportunity. On July 24, Kalshi traders gave Democrats an 83% chance of winning the House and a 44%…

Kalshi’s midterm markets offer a useful lesson in correlation, and in why an apparent pricing inconsistency is not automatically an arbitrage opportunity. On July 24, Kalshi traders gave Democrats an 83% chance of winning the House and a 44%…