Sports betting and poker share certain characteristics. Most pertinently, the balancing of the probability of outcome and perceived value, or to put it another way, it’s about calculating risk versus reward. That calculation obviously applies to poker, but it also applies to sports betting, although it is arguably not followed by sports bettors with the same fastidiousness as poker players.
To illustrate our point, consider the current race to be the NFL MVP. With the latest odds sourced from https://sportsbook.draftkings/leagues/football/nfl, the LA Rams’ Matthew Stafford is the clear favorite to be named MVP. His odds of -300 put him ahead of the Patriots’ Drake Maye (+450). The pair has spent a good chunk of the season at the top of the MVP betting market, and it’s easy to see why. Not only have they performed well, but they have also led teams that were not really considered to be top-tier contenders before the season began, transforming them into teams that could easily win the Super Bowl.
Allen looks like an interesting MVP selection
The market also has reigning MVP Josh Allen (+550) and Bo Nix (+750) as potential contenders. There’s a huge gap to other players like Jordan Love (+7500) and Caleb Williams (+10000). As we said, risk versus reward, so those odds might look tempting, but they are high for a reason: the probability of either winning is unlikely.
Arguably, the value lies with Josh Allen. A few games remain in the regular season, and the Bills and Allen have been heating up at the right time. The recent game against the Patriots – one of the best of the season – became a showdown between Maye and Allen, with the latter coming out on top in a pulsating finish. The Bills’ win and Allen’s performance meant that his MVP odds were clipped, and Maye’s were raised.
The Patriots’ clash with the Bills was the first in a difficult stretch to conclude the season, one in which it felt the Patriots’ hot streak came to a screeching halt. They will be in the Playoffs, sure, but it was also notable that their Super Bowl odds rose after the defeat, and, as you might expect, the Bills’ went back into contention.
The Bills and Allen have momentum
The key aspect here is that the Bills feel like a momentum team. A crunch game awaits on December 28th against the reigning champions, the Eagles. It’s at Highmark Stadium, and it offers both the Bills and Allen a chance to put down a marker to the rest of the NFL. The Bills are +200 to win the AFC East, supplanting the Patriots. If they were to do that, you would definitely consider Allen as likely to overtake Maye.
Of course, that leaves Stafford. But if we are to return to what we mentioned earlier, this is a question of calculating risk versus reward. Stafford deserves to be in the driving seat, but the reward part is limited, paying $3.33 profit on a $10 wager. With Allen, you are taking a chance on him and the Bills staying on this trajectory that put Allen back into MVP contention. It’s far from certain, but it might just be the value play.
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