Warren Buffet has famously said that a major mistake amateur investors make is FOMOing their way into the market. They buy shares of stock they don’t really believe in because they just really want to own something. In poker, amateurs and even relatively skilled players make a very similar mistake with bad game selection. They play in games they are losing in because they want to play. Getting game selection right is a major determining factor in whether a poker career blossoms or not. What are the key indicators for a great game? How about a bad one? In this article, I’ll delve into both, helping you identify them next time you walk into a card room.
Bad Game Selection: Big, Bad, Tough games
A tough game is where there are no chips being given away. That means, if your goal is to win, you’re in for an uphill battle. Here some ways to tell if the game is bad:
- Serious and Quiet Table Dynamic: This is usually a matter of players focusing, paying attention to each other’s actions and making thoughtful plays. A feeler might notice the cutthroat vibe, maybe even a little toxicity. In small player pools, it can be the case where everyone knows everyone and how they play. Finding edges wherever they can matters if they are trying to win money in these games.
- Aggressive Preflop Action: An action game with deep stacks is not necessarily a good one. In live cash games, rake tends to be high and charged on the flop. Professionals take this into account, employing a lot of 3betting and 4betting in their preflop strategy to reduce the amount of rake they pay.
- Appearance & Discussion Tells: The trope has been to look out for headphones, hoodies and sunglasses. However, today I’d be on the lookout for sportswear, physical fitness, clean eating and listening for investing, business, crypto and sports chatter. These demonstrate a natural inclination towards competition and winning which will increase the likelihood they’re here to battle, eye-ing your chips.
It stands to reason that even if you’re in the 98th percentile of poker ability, if you play versus a pool of players in the 99th, you’ll lose. Playing poker well, the hard skill, can easily be outdone by poor game selection, the soft one. Learning how to game select and say no to bad action is imperative to a poker player’s career success as much as playing well in the games they say yes to.
Good Game Selection: Juicy, Fun, Soft Games
A soft game is where a winning player’s bankroll can thrive or at least trickle upward with minimal variance. These tend to be more enjoyable insofar as the playing experience goes. Here are some ways you can tell it’s a soft game running:
- Fun Table Dynamic: Chatter, laughter, drinking, and dramatic responses to game outcomes. An apparent good time that a non-poker person walking by might see and gravitate towards.
- Low Reg-to-Rec Ratio: In general, you want more good players for a game than bad ones. Having winning players at the table doesn’t necessarily hurt a good game. Professionals tend to understand the give and take necessary to keep a game good: being charitable with straddles, having a beer, loosening up, story-telling and joking around etc. The key here is that the players losing their money feel a fair exchange of value — a good time, the gamble etc. Players who are really good for the game are looking for in-kind behaviour. As long as the winning players understand this and act accordingly, a game with professionals can stay good. For tournaments, a $500 WSOP bracelet event with 5,000 runners will be great value since this ratio will be very low. Generally, any tournament that makes your entry a drop in the bucket will be good value.
- Multiway Flops and Turns: Studied players understand that most GTO solutions are for heads up play. Where serious players will be employing a lot of 3betting and 4betting, diminishing the amount of flops seen, a softer game will see the opposite. 4- and 5- way flops and 3-way turns are a good indication of great, soft action.
- Short Buys: In live cash, serious players will have mostly studied 100-250bb gameplay and only sit if they have bankroll to support buying in for the maximum. If you come across a game with short stacks or stacks that haven’t been topped up, it’s probably a good one.
Ultimately, there are two types of games. Games you are winning and games you are losing in. Bankrolls grow faster and exponentially in softer player pools. The tougher the player pool is, the slower a bankroll grows. Playing tougher competition means longer breakeven stretches and generally higher variance.
It’s OK to expose yourself to tougher competition for the sake of competition and improvement. Doing so forces you to bring it and see how you fare. If you dream about battling against your local end-bosses and making your way to the big stage, growing a bankroll in soft games, while continually working on your game is not an unreasonable means of getting there. Alternatively, if you have cash flow allowing you to play and lose without any negative impacts on your life, then cutting your teeth in tough games while studying can accelerate your growth. The most important thing here is to plan for your own context, understanding the risks. And sometimes, you get the rewards.
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